The man to watch....

Categories: Singapore

With the Singapore election looming, it is time again to make predictions. No, not predictions about who the winning party will be, for in Singapore, unlike other countries where it is hard to predict the winning party, here it is a foregone conclusion. Here, the predictions include how many percentage of popular support the government gets, how well the opposition fare and of
course who the next heavy weight will be.

Singapore's power succession is rather unique. Although it is largely patriarchal, there is an 'inner' circle who also hold important cabinet posts and other 'junior' ministers whose role is mainly to support the 'inner' circle. Those in the 'inner' circle are shortlisted and tried. If they do not make the mark, they may be sidelined for the more important cabinet posts. This is different from other countries where grassroot support plays a main part in the political
hierachy.

In previous elections, it was clear that Mr Teo Chee Hean was one of the main pillars in this inner circle. He was largely tipped to be Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) when Mr Lee Hsien Loong becomes the Prime Minister (PM). However, because of an in-built system of political transition, where the future PM would have to undergo a period of 'training', he was unfortunately not named the DPM. Mr Teo happens to be Mr Lee's comtemporary.

In 2001, the PAP brought in 7 new faces who were later made Ministers. One had since 'ofted out' because of personal reasons. Five had been promoted to full Ministers and one a Senior Minister of State. Out of these the person to look out for, in my opinion is Mr Ng Eng Hen.

Among all the new full ministers, Mr Ng had been given largely important portfolios. He started out as Minister of State, Education and Manpower. Singapore, with limited resources, depends largely on its population as a resource. Therefore Education and Manpower Ministry is very important. Education level had been the basis of hiring and promotions in this meritocratic
society. Manpower management is equally important. The Ministry had been actively bringing in foreign talent that the country needs to improve its R&D and upgrading its other industries. This coupled with the need to upgrade its work force to become the so called 'value-added' work force so as to compete with its neighbour, as the country shifts its industry to a more high tech
one. Fours years on, he had been promoted to full Minister with the Ministry of Manpower and that of Defence.

Compared to the other candidate that was introduced in 2001. Mr Khaw, the present Health Minister had been rotated through various Ministries as Senior Minister of State, the most important portfolio is that of Senior Minister of State for Finance. Given his impressive performance during the SARS crisis and the debacle in NKF, it looked like he will be a Health Minister for awhile as there are many health-related issues that needs to be tackled like that of
Medisave, Medishield and the co-payment of medical fees.

Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, the current Minister for Education has a rather impressive CV. He was given the appointment of Senior Minister of State in the Ministry of Trade and Industry after he was elected MP. He is also the current deputy chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the de facto central bank. However he is unlikely to be made the DPM as 'Singapore is not ready for a non-Chinese PM', to quote Mr Lee Kwan Yew in one of his National Day rally before he handed power to Mr Goh Chok Tong, the current Senior Minister.

The current Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports as well as Second Minister for Trade and Industry, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, had not held any other important portfolios. He created a stir once in his maiden speech in parliment when he asked 'What makes a Singaporean, Singaporean?' However after that profound questions, he had largely fizzled out of the limelight.

Mr Raymond Lim, had a rather impressive range of portfolios. Among them were Second Minister for Finance and Second Minister for Foreign Affairs (both portfolios he currently holds) and that of Minister of State for Trade & Industry. He too was largely out of the limelight.

Therefore from all the portfolios held, it seemed that Mr Ng is the only one who was rotated through the major Ministry except that of Finance and Trade and Industry. Don't forget that SM Goh only became the Finance Minister when he was also the Prime Minister. However there is another clue to indicate a bigger thing to come. He recently was given much air time by the newspapers and the TV. He fired the first salvo against the Workers Party's manifesto. Judging the PAP's history, more public exposures and opportunity to handle big and 'important' tasks are prelude to bigger things to come.

These are still early days yet. After all, it took about 10 years for Mr Goh and the current PM Mr Lee 6 years to be the DPM. Mr Ng is only 46 years old and this is only his first term as MP and already he had been given very impressive portfolios. Therefore, don't be surprised when Mr Ng is made the DPM eventually.