Singapore's Election Watch

Categories: Singapore

The battle lines had been drawn on the 27 April. This was the Nomination Day for the 9th Singapore post-independence election, scheduled 6 May. Politicians from the governing party, Peoples Action Party (PAP) and the opposition will vie for 84 parlimentary seats with 9 Single Member Constituencies (SMCs) and 14 Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs).

This time round, the ruling PAP government fails to form the government on Nomination Day unlike in past years. Since 1988, the ruling PAP had been returned to power on Nomination Day itself. This time round, the failure, is not so much the failure of PAP itself but due to the change in the opposition's election strategy. With the voting in of Mr Chiam See Tong in 1984, the de-facto opposition "leader", he introduced a "by-election" strategy whereby the opposition "allows" the PAP to form the government on Nomination Day and fight for the rest of the seats. Their reasoning behind this was to reassure the people into voting for the oppositions since the ruling PAP with its good track record had already formed the government. This strategy worked, for in 1991, 4 opposition including incumbant Mr Chiam were elected into parliment - the highest ever, since independence. However with the expulsion of Mr Chiam from his party, the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), come the next general election in 1997, the PAP managed to wrestle back two seats leaving only 2 oppositions. Since then, the electorial votes for the opposition had dwindled and a new strategy had to be thought up. Therefore in this coming general election, the political landscape has changed.

The ruling PAP with its excellent track record is contesting all 84 seats. After the Nomination Day, they had 37 seats from walk-over. This is not surprising given that they usually won seats through walk-over on Nomination Day itself. However no one doubts that the PAP will form the next government again; after all they had been in power since independence. In a country where election results are so predictable the gauge for popular support is based on the percentage of votes casts. This is possible because election in Singapore is compulsory. Previous years, PAP generally gets above 70% of the votes; therefore anything less than this is considered loss of support.

This time round, the Prime Minister who has never fought an election since becoming the Deputy PM in 1991, will have to defend his GRC seat in Ang Mo Kio. He fought his first two terms in 1984 and 1988. There is little doubt that he will win, a fact even acknowledged by his opponents from Workers Party (WP).

Two contested GRCs to watch will be Sembawang GRC which will see PAP squaring off with the SDP and that of Aljunied GRC between PAP and WP.

In Sembawang GRC, PAP is helmed by a young minister, Mr Khaw who as the Health Minister had proven himself during SARS crisis and the NKF debacle. His was a fast track promotion as he was only elected into Parliment in 2001. This will be his first time facing the voters as he "walked" into Parliment by walkover when he was in Minister Mentor's Lee Kuan Yew GRC team.

Aljunied GRC will see the incumbant PAP team facing the most promising WP team. How important is this challenge by the WP is reflected by the PM himself opening the election rally speech last night.

As for the SMC, the ward to follow is that of Choa Chu Kang. This ward will see a straight fight between Mr Steve Chia of Singapore Democratic Alliance (SDA) and Mr Gan Kim Yong, the Minister of State, Education and Manpower. Mr Steve Chia was previously praised by the now Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong as having good potential in the last general election. Mr Steve Chia has been with Choa Chu Kang since the last election whereas Mr Gan only appeared in the ward about two months ago. Therefore in this ward, the electorate will probably have to choose between a candidate against a party.


The SDA is a coalition of few opposition party. It was formed in 2001. Its most prominent member is the veteran Mr Chiam who had been a MP since 1984. Mr Chiam will probably win his seat in Potong Pasir, although this may be a close call. He last won the seat by just 700 votes. As an incumbant he has slight advantage against the same PAP candidate he defeated last election. This time round, the PAP has brought in Senior Minister Mr Goh Chok Tong to help in campaigning. It would be interesting to see if the electorate will vote for a candidate who has difficulty conducting his own campaigning. It must also be remembered that Mr Chiam had defeated a PAP candidate before who is now a minister by 4000 votes.

Another potential hot seat contested by SDA is in Choa Chu Kang between Steve Chia and Gan Kim Yong. Mr Steve Chia seemed quite promising in Parliament although SM Goh think otherwise. However Mr Steve Chia's brushes with the law and his own idiosyncracies may work against him. The outcome should be a closed one.

The WP has put up some credible team in this election. Its incumbant is its chief Mr Low in Hougang. He would most likely retain his seat, probably more likely than his counterpart in Potong Pasir. His opponent is Mr Eric Low the candidate he had defeated in the last election. Again SM Goh is tasked to help in his campaigning.

WP put up its most credible team in Aljunied GRC. This team comprises of professionals, the very same type of candidates that PAP looked for. They are expected to give a good fight to the PAP's team of 5 including the Foreign Minister George Yeo and two Ministers-of-State. Though they are most likely to loose, it will be interesting how well they are able to carry out their political rally. Their reputation unfortunately is marred by one of its candidates dispute with the Election Commision regarding his application for minority certification. He has since admitted to his oversight.

The surprise GRC that WP is contesting must be that of Ang Mo Kio GRC, the Prime Minister's ward. According to the WP chief, this is a branding exercise, to show to the people that WP is a serious party. They also commented that it does not look good to have a walk-over PM. When asked if he is sending in martyr, he said: "I think a '敢死队' (a team who dare to die) is better than a '怕死队' (a team that is afraid to die)". This team is expected to lose but what elections watcher wants to see is how much of popular vote PM Lee's team will win. PM Lee is not as popular as the former PM Goh (now SM) because his father happens to be Mr Lee Kuan Yew. If there is a dip in the support for PM Lee, this may rattle the PAP's leadership and the number opposition's vote can be viewed as protest votes.

The SDP is fighting in one SMC and one GRC. They are not expected to do well in both constituencies. This is because of internal squabbling after the party's CEC was sued by MM Lee and PM Lee after the party printed a defamatory article against them. Half of the CEC members had already apologised with the remaining fighting out the court case. Even Mr Ling How Dong, who will be fighting in the SMC ward has contradicted himself regarding the status of Dr Chee Soo Juan, the party's Secretary General, who is largely blamed for the present court case. Dr Chee is barred from this election because he was made a bankrupt after losing another court battle involving defamation against the PAP leaders.

It will be interesting to see how well the opposition is faring with the change in election strategy. It will also be interesting to see how the PAP's mostly professionals, and high flying successful men and women fare against the mostly heartlanders of the opposition. Maybe this will be a true battle line rather than an artificial one separating the pre from the post-65s.

Links:
General Election 2006 Election Map
The Election Battleground
Wikipedia - 15th Singapore General Election