What next for Badawi-Mahathir's confrontations

Categories: Malaysia

Now that the Badawi administration had declassified some official documents pertaining to the discussions of the scrapped Scenic Bridge, a full scale war with Tun Mahathir had been declared. Somebody is bound to be hurt whatever the outcome. Will the release of these documents placate Tun?

It depends on what the reasons behind Tun are. If his outburst is because he felt slighted that his legacy had been slowly dismantled then Tun is an angry man indeed. In his later years he had build many buildings, like the international airport (KLIA), the Twin Towers and the administrative capital of Putrajaya. Maybe it was an attempt to revitalise the economy; but maybe it is an attempt to immortalise his contribution to the country. When the Badawi administration took over, his emphasis had been towards the upgrading of the rural areas, and as a result he started to halt the building of such grand structures and channel the money to the rural areas. Because of the style by which Tun has governed, he see this as an attack on him. From a man who is not adversed to a challenged, this is the predicted results.

When Tun Mahathir announced the building of the crooked bridge, he proudly announced that Malaysia does not need the agreement of Singapore if it wants to demolish and replace the Causeway in its territorial waters. Therefore from day one, Tun has already stake his reputation and pride on the building of the bridge. As a result when the building of the bridge was called off, his pride has been dented. When a person's pride and reputation had been tarnish, it is more difficult for him to accept any explanation contrary to his belief. If this is the reason for the outburst, then I am sure the Mahathir-Badawi confrontation will linger until and unless one party has fallen.

There were rumours that Tun was upset because his son was by-passed in the last UMNO general election in favour of Badawi's son-in-law. How true the rumour is, is anybody's guess, but Tun did fire his salvo towards Badawi's son-in-law. If this is true, then probably Tun is only making things difficult for Badawi so that his administration will falter, resulting in his ouster as party leader. With Badawi out of the way, Tun's son can mount a challenge on a more equal footing. In this scenario, Tun will only be placated once Badawi's popularity and power base has been eroded.

If Tun really felt that Badawi has erred and truely has a case to answer, then once all Tun's queries had been successfully rebutted, he will accept the explanation and go back to his retirement. However, knowing Tun's personality, it may not be easy to satisfy him and the controversy will linger on for sometime more.

The controversy may be just a front created by Tun for Badawi to show some respect for Tun. After Badawi took office, he had cancelled some of Tun Mahathir's mega-projects. This, to Tun may be a sign of disrespect. Tun may have created this controversy with the hope that Badawi will answer to him, like before, just to show that Tun is still in 'power'. Badawi has thus far refuses to address Tun personally and this may have cause Tun's criticisms to be more harsh and personal. Maybe all this disputes will just end if Badawi made a personal visit to Tun to trash out the problems, like what many UMNO leaders had suggested.

Now with an open war being declared, what next? This will surely depends on who is the eventual winner.

If Badawi win, he will have the mandate of UMNO and the moral authority to govern Malaysia anyway he likes. His son-in-law Khairy's position will also be stronger within UMNO and his ascend within the ranks of UMNO will surely be smoother.

However if he loses, Badawi will have lost the strong mandate given to him in the last general election. Tun will have gained a higher moral authority and will be the guardian of sorts to the government, effectively making him governing Malaysia by proxy. With UMNO National Assembly coming soon, surely this will affect Badawi's position as the President of UMNO. Najib's supporters may be in a hurry to promote him to take over as he will be seen as the stronger leader especially after he was publicly named by Tun as the first choice candidate when he was to name his successor.

The stakes are bigger for Tun. If he loses, his whole premiership and policy-making will come into question. He will be seen as someone who is autocratic who bulldozed everything through so as to achieve his vision, regardless of legality. Already Tajudin has accused him and Zaim of 'coercion' when he bought into MAS, allegedly an effort to keep the central bank afloat after a disastrous investment outcome. Maybe Tun has already felt the heat when he claimed that Badawi's government will falsely accuse him as a way to get back at him in this ongoing controversy.

However if the is no winner, with the constant badgering of the Badawi's government. Tun may risk sounding like a broken record, always harping on the same old issues despite explanations by the government. In the event, he may lose the respect of UMNO and most Malaysians. He may even played into the hands of the Oppositions. Already Badawi has hinted that he is 'truer' UMNO than Tun because he had never spoken on an opposition platform. Tun apparently spoke on a PAS platform after he was expelled from UMNO by Tunku.

Whatever the outcome, both parties will come out bruised. ln the short term, only personal pride will be dented. In the long run, however, it is the country that will suffer. The government cannot run efficiently if it has to address Tun's charges at every turn. The open confrontations may also be worrisome to potential investors, who may place their money elsewhere. In the end it is the people's, especially that of UMNO's, acceptance of the explanation that is important. If the people decides that Badawi has won the case, then Tun's voice will get softer and softer.