Who won the Israeli/Hizbollah war?

Categories: Wormie Says

Finally the Israeli/Hizbollah cease fire had been put in place after a month of war. Now both sides is claiming victory in this unfortunate war. Who has actually won this war?

I usually have much sympathy for the Arabs in the Middle East when it comes with dealings with Israel. Israel, like its backer, the US, had been pretty much into bullying and intimidation. However in this instance, the blame should be shouldered by Hizbollah directly and the Lebanese government indirectly. It is no secret that the Israeli had been uneasy with the Hizbollah bases in south Lebanon. Hizbollah had been armed and possibly trained by its backers Syria and Iran. This has made the Israeli uncomfortable because Israeli's cities are within striking distance from these bases. However it has no excuse to attack these bases without incurring the wrath from the rest of the world with the possible exception of US. However the Hizbollah has nicely created just such an excuse for the Israelis when they kidnapped 2 Israeli soldiers. In normal circumstances, such innocuous actions would not have triggered off a full-blown war but in this instance the kidnapping had given the Israelis the very excuse they are seeking to invade Lebanon with the aim of destroying the Hizbollah bases. So the blame should be borne by the Hizbollah group.

However the Hizbollah should not be solely to blame. The Lebanese government had not been trying to disarm the Hizbollah group since the Syrians were expelled from Lebanon. How can a country have two groups of arm forces? Who will the arm forces answer to? Therefore this has created a state-within-a-state situation. Hence, although the war takes place in south Lebanon, it is actually a war between Israelis and Hizbollah forces. So far the Lebanese army had not even entered the fray. This is as if the Hizbollah-controlled is an autonomous one. However the people killed are Lebanese; people who voted the current Lebanese government. What has the government do for these civilians?

The war will not be so protracted if external powers do not come into play. If the US do not supply arms to the Israelis and the Syrians/Iranians did not do likewise, where are the two opposing sides going to get their ammunitions? Apart from that the US also had given their tacit approval for the attack against Hizbollah bases when there rejected the call for a simple cease fire citing cease fire is only temporary and will not solve the Hizbollah attack on the Israelis.

So why the 'sudden' change of heart? I think the civilians toll is getting too high for the US comfort level. This coupled with the apparent stalemate with the Israeli army incursion into Lebanon and the dogged resistance from the Hizbollah, means that if the war is to be prolonged, then both sides will suffer more casualties risking the loss of support from general public.

With the cease fire now in place, who won? Before this question is answered, lets see who has lost. Of course, civilians are the biggest losers. They have their lives messed up because of misjudment of a few. Next is the Hizbollah because they are driven further up north, away from their traditional power bases, away from striking distance to their sworn enemy. The Israelis also lost because of the destruction of their cities, their economy, their armies and their reputation as an invincible army in the Middle East.

So if both sides lost in this war, who won? The answer is the arm suppliers to both sides, who make millions from the sale, from the destruction of people's livelihood, and from the unnecessary death of civilians and the army personnel alike.