Malaysia's 12th GE - the aftermath

The 12th Malaysian General Election was conducted yesterday and the results, dare I say, shocked many people. Yes, the ruling Barisan coalition was expected to lose some seats and may even stood a chance to hold on to the two-third majority in Parliament; long used as the yardstick of the people's support. However, eventually, this was not to be. Not only have Barisan failed to retain their two-third majority, but they were further slapped on the face with the lost of their major component party of MCA, Gerakan and MIC.

At the state level, things don't look any better. As expected, Kelantan remained in the hands of opposition PAS. Penang, although not expected to do as well as before, also fell to the opposition. Surprises came with the fall of Kedah, Selangor and Perak. All these loses were mainly at the expense of MCA, Gerakan and MIC.

In the run-up to the election, the Barisan coalition was not expected to do as well as in 2004 when they won 198 parliamentary seats out of 218. Many factors worked against the ruling government of Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi.

Firstly there was the Mahathir factor. Unexplicably, after choosing Datuk Seri Abdullah Badawi as his successor, he suddenly turned against him. Dr Mahathir criticised his successor repeated and painting negative pictures of him at every turn. How Datuk Seri Abdullah can remain quiet with such personal attacks remained a mystery. To his supporters, you will say he has wisdom, respect and poise. To his critics, he is a lame duck, weak prime minister. How can a reigning prime minister fight an election when even an elder respected, still powerful stateman criticises him? Maybe Dr Mahathir is now smiling at poor showing of ruling coalition under the leadership of his chosen successor.

Then the is the Badawi factor. When Badawi ascended the premiership, he had vowed to eradicate corruption and clean up the running of the civil service. But at the end of four years, not much had changed. He was shown to be a weak leader time and again. Could this have contributed to the dismay results?

How much had the Anwar factor contributed? I think it is just a matter of timing - being at the right place at the right time. No doubt he had been the most prominent face of the Opposition. But his influence will most likely have the most effect with the Malay majority. Even then, if one listened to his speeches, there is not much difference between his and that of the Chinese-based DAP. His main groused was mainly with the previous administration of Dr Mahathir. In fact he had not criticised Badawi directly.

But the biggest issues of the day must be that of race and religion issues. Unfortunately after 50 years of independence, these issues had not been conclusively resolved. The people merely tolerated such issues and not openly discussed them publicly. However with the Badawi's administration, either through policy change or otherwise, such issues came to the open. The Hindruf street demonstration was the most telling. It seemed that the minority's fustration had reached its limit. Where previously, such unhappiness can only be inferred, with yesterday's results, it is only too clear to be seen.

With the above background, it is not difficult to predict the fall of Datuk Seri Samy Vellu, the president of MIC. However the fall of bigwick of the Chinese-based party is certainly a surprise especially that of MCA. Penang, under Gerakan had been getting from bad to worse. Even the outgoing Chief Minister Tan Sri Koh Tsu Koon did not get much support from UMNO and his political days were perhaps numbered starting with Khairy's speech and his being ignored by the Tanjong division UMNO chief during the opening of the Tanjung division headquarters back in 2006. However, at the national level, MCA had been fairly successful in fighting for its cause.

So what will this mean to the ruling coalition of Barisan? And how will it affect the government's policy towards race relations, one of the major issues in this general election. Will there be any backlash to the country's minority? What will be Anwar's next step? Will he contest in a by-election as planned? Will he keep his word on dismantling the affirmative policy? Only time will tell.